Key Highlights:

✔️ U.S.-Russia Joint Statement in Question – Ongoing diplomatic talks hint at progress, but no official agreement yet.
✔️ Fed’s Bostic Signals One Rate Cut in 2024 – Tariffs complicate inflation progress.
✔️ UK Seeks Trade Deal with U.S. – Aims to avoid upcoming reciprocal tariffs.
✔️ U.S. Manufacturing Contracts Again – Tariff-driven cost increases weigh on the sector.
✔️ Eurozone Composite PMI Hits 7-Month High – Manufacturing shows signs of recovery.
✔️ UK Economy Rebounding? – March PMI data hits a 6-month peak.

U.S.-Russia Talks: Progress, but No Agreement Yet

Negotiations between U.S. and Russian representatives in Riyadh lasted over 12 hours, following a marathon discussion with Ukrainian officials. Talks centered around a partial ceasefire in the Black Sea, aiming to restore energy and grain trade routes. While no formal agreement has been reached, discussions could pave the way for broader peace efforts.

Fed’s Bostic: One Rate Cut Expected in 2024

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic remains cautious about interest rate cuts, citing persistent inflationary risks from tariffs and a slowing labor market. He predicts only one rate cut this year, down from earlier expectations of two.

UK Seeks Trade Agreement with U.S.

To prevent economic strain from potential U.S. reciprocal tariffs, the UK is actively negotiating a bilateral trade pact with the U.S. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and President Trump discussed the agreement, signaling stronger economic ties.

U.S. Manufacturing Slips Back Into Contraction

The March Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.8, indicating declining activity. Rising tariffs have significantly increased material costs, pushing businesses to raise prices at the fastest rate in nearly two years. Meanwhile, service sector growth continues, but business confidence has weakened due to economic uncertainty.

Eurozone’s PMI Hits 7-Month High, Boosting Market Optimism

The Eurozone’s Composite PMI rose to 50.4, the highest level in seven months, signaling a potential turnaround in manufacturing. Increased infrastructure and defense spending, particularly in Germany, is driving renewed economic confidence.

UK Economic Recovery Gaining Momentum?

The UK’s March Composite PMI climbed to 52.0, its highest in six months. Strong growth in the financial services sector and increased consumer demand are fueling optimism. However, job losses and trade uncertainties remain concerns.

Key Events to Watch Today (UTC+8)

• 17:00 – Germany March IFO Business Climate Index

• 18:00 – ECB Robert Holzmann speaks

• 18:50 – ECB Boštjan Vasle speaks

• 21:05 – New York Fed John Williams speaks

• 22:00 – U.S. February New Home Sales Data

Stay tuned for further updates on how these developments will impact the financial markets!