Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed a significant surprise increase in US nonfarm payrolls for September. Payroll growth, which had slightly rebounded in August, rose by 254K in September, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 144K. Estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged between 75K and 180K, meaning the actual figure exceeded even the highest economist projections. This figure is also well above the 12-month average of 203K. 

Additionally, the unemployment rate, which jumped to 4.3% in July and eased to 4.2% last month, dropped further to 4.1% in September. Employment rose in food services, drinking places, health care, government, social assistance, and construction sectors. Moreover, in September, the average hourly earnings of all employees on nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.4% monthly and 4% annually, exceeding median market expectations. 

A notable aspect of the report was the upward revisions to previous months' payroll figures, contrary to the downward revisions seen in earlier reports. July's figures were revised upward by 55K, from 89K to 144K, while August's numbers were revised upward by 17K, from 142K to 159K. 

As a result, the figures reveal that the US labor market remains strong and is not cooling as rapidly as initially thought. Payroll growth also highlights the US labor market's capacity to add new jobs, easing concerns that had cast a shadow over the markets. 

While bets on an aggressive rate cut from the Fed next month were undermined, the US dollar and Treasury yields registered sharp increases. The odds of a half-point rate cut, priced at a one-third chance before the data release, have now dropped to 7%. Consequently, the main scenario for the Fed's expected policy path appears to have shifted sharply towards gradual rate cuts.  

As market fluctuations continue in response to the surprise payroll figures, market participants will closely monitor upcoming major US data releases and messages from Fed officials.