Global markets faced intense volatility from March 31 to April 4, 2025, driven by U.S. tariff announcements, escalating trade tensions, and mixed economic data. The U.S. economy showed signs of slowing, while Japan and China faced challenges from inflation and trade disruptions. Safe-haven assets surged as investors sought refuge from geopolitical risks.

Monday, March 31, 2025

Monday marked the beginning of a tumultuous week in global financial markets. The day was dominated by news of impending U.S. tariffs on major trading partners, including China, India, and the European Union. This announcement sent shockwaves through equity markets worldwide, with Japan's Nikkei 225 plummeting by 3.6% and European futures indicating a sharp selloff at the opening bell. The MSCI All-Country World Index dropped by 1.8%, marking its worst single-day performance in over three months.

Safe-haven assets saw significant inflows as investors sought refuge from the turmoil. Gold prices surged to $3,120.54 per ounce, hitting a new record high amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty. U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply, with the benchmark 10-year yield dropping to 3.25%, its lowest level since January 2025.

Adding to the bearish sentiment were fresh concerns about a potential U.S. recession. Goldman Sachs revised its recession probability forecast upward to 35% for the next 12 months, citing weakening consumer confidence and slowing corporate earnings growth. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened slightly as investors flocked to the greenback as a safe-haven currency.

In Asia, China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.9%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index shed 3.2%. The Indian Sensex also declined by over 1%, reflecting investor concerns about the impact of U.S. tariffs on emerging markets.

Commodities faced mixed reactions; crude oil prices fell slightly due to fears of reduced global demand, with Brent crude trading at $79 per barrel. Meanwhile, industrial metals like copper and aluminum saw declines as investors braced for potential disruptions in global trade.

The day ended with analysts warning that the week ahead could see continued volatility as markets digest tariff announcements and their implications for global growth.

Tuesday, April 1, 2025

Tuesday brought some respite to global markets, though uncertainty remained high. U.S. equity indices showed mixed performance as investors reacted cautiously to Monday’s tariff announcements. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed marginally down by 0.03%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.38%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose by an impressive 0.87%. Gains in consumer discretionary and technology stocks helped offset losses in industrials and energy sectors.

The market's resilience was attributed to bargain hunting in oversold sectors and optimism about potential exemptions or rollbacks in tariffs during ongoing negotiations between the U.S., China, and other affected countries. However, volatility persisted throughout the trading session as investors remained wary of further policy surprises from Washington.

In Europe, markets saw a modest recovery after Monday’s selloff. The pan-European STOXX 600 rose by 0.4%, led by gains in defensive sectors such as healthcare and utilities. However, Germany’s DAX lagged behind due to weaker-than-expected manufacturing PMI data, which came in at 48.7—indicating contraction for the third consecutive month.

In Asia-Pacific markets, Japan’s Nikkei rebounded slightly (+0.8%) after Monday’s steep losses, but sentiment remained fragile as concerns about trade disruptions lingered. Meanwhile, China’s Shanghai Composite Index remained flat as Beijing hinted at possible countermeasures against U.S. tariffs.

Currency markets were relatively stable compared to Monday’s turbulence. The Japanese yen weakened slightly against the dollar (¥132/USD), while the euro traded at $1.08 amid mixed economic data from the Eurozone.

Commodities saw some stabilization on Tuesday; Brent crude rose modestly to $80 per barrel after reports of declining inventories in key markets like the U.S., while gold prices remained elevated to $3,115.33 per ounce.

Wednesday, April 2, 2025

Midweek trading brought heightened volatility across global markets as investors adjusted their portfolios ahead of anticipated updates on trade policies from Washington and Beijing. In the United States, major indices opened lower but managed to recover by the closing bell thanks to gains in defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended flat (-0.02%), while the S&P 500 rose by 0.4%, and Nasdaq climbed by another 0.6%.

Technology stocks continued their upward momentum despite lingering concerns about supply chain disruptions caused by tariffs on Chinese imports. Apple (+1.2%) and Microsoft (+1%) were among the top gainers in the sector after analysts reaffirmed their strong earnings outlooks for Q2.

In Europe, investor sentiment remained cautious as Germany reported its lowest inflation rate in over a year—falling to just 2.2% year-over-year in March—raising concerns about slowing economic growth across the Eurozone’s largest economy. The European Central Bank (ECB) reiterated its commitment to maintaining accommodative monetary policy but warned of downside risks stemming from geopolitical tensions.

Asian markets experienced mixed results on Wednesday; Japan’s Nikkei fell by another 0.5%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rebounded by 1% amid hopes that Beijing might introduce stimulus measures to offset trade-related headwinds.

Currency markets saw renewed activity as traders sought clarity on central bank policies amid rising uncertainty about global growth prospects. The U.S. dollar strengthened against most major currencies except for the Swiss franc and Japanese yen—both traditional safe havens during periods of market stress.

Commodities experienced divergent trends; oil prices rose further on reports of supply disruptions in Libya and Venezuela, with Brent crude trading at $82 per barrel. Gold prices held steady near $3,162 per ounce as demand for safe-haven assets remained robust.

Thursday, April 3, 2025

Thursday marked one of the most volatile trading sessions of the week as President Trump officially announced additional tariffs targeting key trading partners like China (34%) and India (26%). Global equity markets reacted sharply to this escalation in trade tensions; the MSCI World Index fell by nearly 2%, erasing all gains made earlier in the week.

In Asia-Pacific markets, India’s Sensex dropped sharply by over 322 points (-1%), while Nifty breached critical support levels to close below 23,300 for the first time since December 2024. Chinese equities also suffered steep losses; the Shanghai Composite Index fell by nearly 3% as investors braced for retaliatory measures from Beijing.

European markets fared no better; Germany’s DAX plunged by over 2%, while France’s CAC-40 dropped by nearly 1%. Defensive sectors like healthcare managed to limit losses somewhat but failed to offset broader declines across cyclical industries like autos and industrials.

In commodities markets, oil prices surged amid concerns that geopolitical tensions could disrupt global supply chains further; Brent crude futures prices reached $84 per barrel—its highest level since February—while WTI crude futures prices climbed above $80 per barrel for the first time this year.

Gold prices continued their upward trajectory amid persistent demand for safe-haven assets; spot gold traded at $3,113 per ounce—a new all-time high—as investors sought refuge from escalating market risks.

Currency markets reflected heightened risk aversion; emerging market currencies like India’s rupee (₹83/USD) and Brazil’s real weakened significantly against major currencies like the dollar and euro.

Friday, April 4, 2025

Friday's trading session was marked by cautious optimism as investors digested the week's events and looked ahead to the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls report. Despite Thursday's sharp declines, U.S. equity indices showed resilience, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.2%, the S&P 500 gaining 0.3%, and the Nasdaq climbing by 0.5%.

In Europe, markets saw a modest recovery as well; the STOXX 600 rose by 0.5%, driven by gains in technology and consumer discretionary sectors. Germany’s DAX rebounded by 0.8%, while France’s CAC-40 gained 0.6%.

Asian markets also experienced a partial recovery; Japan’s Nikkei rose by 0.9%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed by 1.2% as investors speculated about potential stimulus measures from Beijing to counteract trade headwinds.

Currency markets were relatively stable, with the U.S. dollar maintaining its strength against most major currencies. The euro traded at $1.08, while the Japanese yen remained stable at ¥132/USD.

Commodities continued to reflect market uncertainty; gold prices held near $3,094 per ounce, while oil futures prices stabilized at $84 per barrel for Brent crude. The week ended with investors bracing for further volatility in the coming week, particularly with the release of key economic indicators like the U.S. jobs report.

Next Week Market focus!

Markets will turn their attention to a packed week of key economic data and central bank decisions. In the U.S., all eyes will be on inflation numbers, consumer sentiment, and the FOMC minutes—offering potential clues into the Fed’s policy path amid persistent price pressures.

Across the Atlantic, the UK’s GDP data and Germany’s industrial production figures will help gauge the strength of European growth. In Asia, China’s trade and inflation data will be in focus, along with interest rate decisions from India and New Zealand.

Traders will also closely watch global supply chain volatility indices and PMI surveys for fresh insights into manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, reactions to the latest U.S. tariffs and their ripple effects on global trade will remain under the spotlight.